Wood Mackenzie, the world's largest energy consulting firm that iron ore supply and demand in the next five years will gradually tend to balance, iron ore prices will gradually decline. In 2011, 62% of the content of the iron ore price of about 159 U.S. dollars / ton (C & F), in 2012, about 157 U.S. dollars / ton, $ 155 / ton in 2013, 2014 will be only $ 140 / t .
Australia's BHP Billiton the Billiton Mining Group (BHP Billiton) also believes that iron ore supply and demand in the next 12 months will tend to balance the 2013-2014 supply exceeds demand, so prices will decline. Analysis, BHP Billiton, the world iron ore market fluctuations mainly due to the slowdown in the economic growth rate in China, instead of rising demand for iron ore down; China is the largest country in the world iron ore demand, imports decreased, but not will cause great price impact is expected that the price will remain at $ 120 / ton, the world's mining industry will remain stable.
The past two years, the main raw material prices of iron and steel production has maintained a high level, greatly stimulate investment scale iron ore mining project, including Brazil's Vale, BHP Billiton Billiton (BHP Billiton) and Rio Tinto (Rio Tino) three Mining Group to expand production and new projects are particularly significant.
Relatively fast growth of the world's iron ore supply at the same time, reduce the proportion of demand for steel producers. China is the world's largest steel producer, China steel inventory the excessive, sales prices have fallen sharply in 2011, many steel companies shut down the furnace, to reduce the scale of production. Patrick, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie forecasts that the average steel production in China in the next five years will be dropped by the last decade of double-digit growth in the number of 5%. At the same time, countries such as Europe, Japan, Australia and Canada have also closed many steel mills, so far unable to resume normal production, various factors will be a direct result of the decline in the price of iron ore.
Patrick, 70% of China's iron ore dependence on imports, to 2030, China's total iron ore imports will account for 85-90% of the consumption of the decline in international iron ore prices to some extent, to make up for the Chinese steel sales downturn caused by the loss. BHP Billiton predicts the next seven years, the world's iron ore mined each year an increase of 100 million tons in order to meet the demand of the Chinese market. Australian resources and energy sectors of the economy but also the global demand for iron ore increased by 35 million tons in 2030, based on the the sharp sharp increase of the demand for steel producers in China, the country's exports in 2016-2017 will grow more than 50% .
In addition, Wood Mackenzie coking coal analyst Jim Truman also predicted, as the main fuel in iron and steel production, the price of coking coal in the next few years will be maintained at 200-215 U.S. dollars / ton, coking coal prices will remain the order due to floods in Australia as well as China, a large number of needs. However, with the expansion of the scale of the gradual decline of the price of iron ore and coking coal production, the price of coking coal in the next few years will gradually decline, according to Jim Truman expects prices will remain at about 200 U.S. dollars / ton (FOB price).
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